The Eastern Conference Preview: A Bunch of Predictions

Its the Raps home opener tonight and I thought I'd throw together some thoughts on the rest of the Conference, that was totally rewritten after the stirring opening season win at Philly. Ok, not at all, so here's a look at how we at Dotrunnings think it will happen.

Team Most Likely to Repeat as Conference Champs: Boston. Yes, I decided to start this off with some jokes for your humour. Boston will get it done again this year again, but not in that dominant, 4^th round-KO fashion they did last year. This year, they will beat your favourite team more by squeezing out submissions via 4th quarter execution. This team has got a couple of seasons left in them as the regular season conference bully.

Team Most Likely to Benefit from a Long Regular Season: Detroit. The consistent regular season aptitude of the Pistons has kept them from doing what they really had to do until this season: get a new coach. Michael Curry will happily ride the ‘player’s coach’ title, but it would be his willingness to develop younger players other than Rodney Stuckey (namely Amir Johnson) that could pay huge dividends for Detroit. If they learn to drop that low percentage perimeter-dependent offense that regularly starts failing them by about the Conference Semi-Finals, they may have a more than decent chance at representing the East in the NBA Finals.

Team Most Likely to Suffer from a Long Regular Season: New York. That ticking noise is Marbury and Curry sitting on the bench. The ship really starts to sink when Jamal Crawford goes through an inconsistent patch and Chris Duhon’s play makes everyone realize he is not an NBA caliber starting point guard.

Team That Can’t Get Their Roster Right No Matter How They Try: Cleveland. In recent years, San Antonio has pounded home the concept that it takes three elite offensive players who can create their own offense to make an NBA champion. By adding star power and instantly becoming championship material, both Boston and L.A. have further added to this notion. Even the Phoenix almost-dynasty never materialized because of the conspicuous disappearance of a third wheel in crunch time (whether it be Marion or Barbosa). GM Danny Ferry has tried his darndest to overhaul the roster and this year the best he could come up with was Mo Williams. I’m not saying the idea of playing Lebron in a seven game series in not an extremely worrisome prospect for any team in the East. But I am saying the Cavs will never win a championship unless they find a way to bring some legitimate All-Star help for Lebron. Runner-up: Knicks. They need to stop thinking about it, and actually cut the dead weight. If anybody else can make Marbury work, that’s more power to them.

Team Least Likely to Reach Expectation for Wins in Regular Season: Philly. How many people are sipping the 76er cool aid coming into this season. It’s ridiculous. Sure, they were one of the few teams that legitimately and aggressively addressed an ongoing concern with their roster by signing Elton Brand (that’s like a double-Bull diss). But it will take some time for him to adjust to the team and vice-versa, which will cost them some early wins. After all, recent Philly teams have never had a legitimate post presence and Brand is coming off a significant injury. And as a further regulator, this is an athletic team that excels at breaking teams down in isolations. But they do not pass well as a team, and they shoot terribly. I’m not saying they can’t improve, but 50 wins and reaching the Conference Semis for a team that can’t shoot? Really?

Most Over-Rated Team in the Conference: Orlando. It would be easy to bring up their unsettled back-court situation (losing Dooling actually hurt and that’s says enough) and question Jameer Nelson’s ability to lead the team to an elite status. But Orlando will never be able to match-up with the championship contenders playing without a true power forward. Some may have you believe the Magic were successful playing out a 1-4 and benefiting from the awkward match-ups that resulted from having Hedo and Rashard on the court together. But even with Dwight Howard’s physical overwhelming presence, the team remains way too soft. Plus, having two small forwards as your roster’s best skill players is closer to a conflict of interest than just merely a non-ideal situation. You might see an upgrade if they let Hedo play out the Euro-bounce threat, and let Lewis slide back to SF, so they can focus on finding a better front court compliment for Howard.

Most Under-Rated Team in Conference: Atlanta. This is a team that had a mid-season addition at point guard, and still stretched out the eventual champions to 7 games in the first round of the Playoffs. They have a nice starting five and the overwhelming majority of their core players are exceedingly young and have a huge upside. Sure, they lost a glue player/6^th man in Josh Childress, further depleting an already thin bench. All this ill vibe is probably more of a function of Mike Woodson as part of an unsettling coaching dynamic. But if Bibby can become a leader for this team and the young bench players step up, this team could sneak past the Magic and take the Southeast division.

Playoff Contending Team Spinning its Tires: Washington. They are an eccentric group that has grown apart from all the injury time lost to its core players. It’s hard to progress forward when you don’t know which group of players on your roster play best together. And they will need to adjust again when Gilbert gets back. But in the end, they really need to learn how to play some sort of defense if they expect to actually win a Playoff series.

Fringe Team Spinning Its Tires: Milwaukee: The big roster shake up resulted in Richard Jefferson becoming the team’s number two option. It didn’t work in New Jersey and they actually had a point guard. Runner Up: Charlotte. And it couldn’t happen to a better guy than Larry Brown. Mid season fire sale could really help someone else.

Team That Could Make the Playoffs But Shouldn’t: Chicago: Unbelievable how they can go all these years and still not acquire some sort of offensively-unchallenged post player. Derrick Rose hype will mask the desperate need to thin the backcourt out sooner than later. Runner Up: Miami. The Heat need to get something for Marion. Meaning they need better players and they don’t need Shawn Marion.

Team That Needs Players to Step Up to be a Conference Contender: Toronto. Even the anti-Canadian media forces out there (believe it!) will have to grudgingly admit (eventually) that the Raps new big three will be as strong as core as any three in the Conference (you think Ray-Ray is creating shots for himself now?). This team is handicapped by average athleticism, which plays itself out most noticeably in the lack of a slasher/scorer swing player that can put pressure on opposing teams’ defenses and provide some resistance as a defender. But since Toronto is capped out, the idea of adding a Gerald Wallace (you just know they’d take Bargs and Moon in a package) or even a Travis Outlaw (once he starts to complain about PT in Portland) may have to wait. But if Moon ever learns how to put the ball on the floor or Joey Graham ever gets a pulse, the damage could be minimized, especially if Kapono asserts himself. However, if Bargnani ever got his game together, that could potentially give the Raps one more advantageous match-up that could potentially put them over the top. Of the conference. This concept is so far fetched, it could be considered the perfect Raptor storm. Most folks outside of Toronto haven’t even considered the prospect of it. And there is a reason for this…how many ‘if’s’ did I just use?

Conference Semi-Finalists: Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto

Other Playoff Teams: Orlando, Atlanta, Philly, Washington

08-09 Raptor Scouting Report Part 2

Now that we're on the cusp of the season opener, it's time that DotRunnings finishes looking at the rest of roster, meaning the bench. From the exhibition season alone, there appears to be much apprehension when it comes to this area, something that has not been experienced around these parts for the past couple of years. But with the breaking up of the former elite point guard tandem, the second unit has already shown signs of dropping off in efficiency. Here are the players that compose one of the Raps' biggest question marks going into the new season.

Andrea Bargnani - Is the other big question on the roster after JO's health. This could be the make or break year for the ex-number 1 pick, as his apparent regression last season has drawn much concern and attention. A Euro-style big in every sense of the stereotype: long, shooter-type with a good face up game and no desire to play near the basket, never mind with his back to it. Possesses superb range on jumper and has excellent agility for size, which was key to the source of optimism for his pro development. Utilizes a very good first step to pull up for long jumpers, often of an impressively high degree of difficulty which he will make with regularity when he's on. Unfortunately, his follow through footwork is exceedingly awkward, making his forays to the basket an adventure that occasionally reaches comedic levels. Main issue as an offensive player is that he has yet to figure out how to utilize his superior length to his advantage. At this stage, would prefer to be matched up against an opposing centre and work his agility from the perimeter for jumpers. The League managed to figure this out, and by year two, he was often being matched up against shorter, quicker defenders who could neutralize his perimeter game. Really, really, really needs to learn to work for shots closer to the basket; could be unstoppable against smaller defenders from mid range. For this reason, regardless of his future trajectory, Dirk will always be his ideal developmental blueprint. Not a defensive player by any means, and suffers from a lack of natural physicality. Has potential as a rebounder with superior length and footwork, but needs to be conscious of being active, often to the point of demonstrative coaxing by the coaching staff. He is too young to be given up on; Colangelo envisioned Bargs to be a nightmare match-up for opponents on the defensive end, as a versatile outside-inside threat. This is his baby. Would add a rare dimension to the squad, so the speed of his development will directly correlate to the ascendance of the Raptors to NBA elite status. On the flip side, Sam will feel an awful lot of pressure to ensure this project does develop, and anything less would directly effect his future on the bench.
Jason Kapono - Had an underwhelming, at best, regular season in his first year as a Raptor, but almost single-handedly justified his large extended contract in the Playoffs where he absolutely torched the Magic. Possibly the league's most consistent and dangerous three point threat, can be automatic regardless of the extent of defense. Struggled to finish in any other context until the Playoffs, where he pulled out an array of floaters and mid range shots that made him virtually unguardable. Was even able to use his body to get to the rim, finishing at an excellent clip and consistently drawing foul-worthy contact (mostly uncalled) against Dwight Howard. Average athlete at best, and offers very little on the defensive end; has been known to enable his opponent into career nights such as the case was last year with noted offensive force Desmond Mason. Undeniably savvy player, who has learned to mostly hide deficiencies; a high caliber role player.
Joey Graham - self proclaimed "most versatile player in the NBA." And still managed to pass League enforced drug testing. A strong, athletic small forward who potentially could solve a crying positional need for the Raptors. Shockingly unproductive thus far in his career: has yet to figure out the game on the NBA level, and spends much of his playing time doing little of note. Team athleticism appears to be a lurking problem, and Joey's ability to assert himself would do wonders. For every put-back dunk, there's a needless turnover or missed defensive assignment, but, sadly, taking the bad is almost preferred to his typical on court disappearing act. Had his best pre-season with the team ever, leading the Raptor kids in the Vegas summer league and following that up with a somewhat consistent, although injury-plagued, exhibition season. A card-carrying member of Sam's dog house, his erratic playing time virtually guarantees the vicious cycle. Something has got to give here; the opportunity is there but any optimism begs disappointment. Is this the year Joey shows he has a pulse?
Willie Solomon - Mike James-lite. Contrary to local press reports, sat out end of exhibition season because of nagging minor injuries, not a benching from his tailed off performances. Ex-ACC star has plied his trade overseas and built a little rep despite his minimal NBA experience. Strong and quick, has an offensive game that is heavily reliant on a mid-range to deep pull-up, hence the aforementioned comparison. Getting mixed signals from bench; struggled when prodded to be a distributor, had his best pre-season moments when he looked for his own shot. Judging by his statements to the press, Sam would prefer Willie repeatedly look for his shot on the second unit in the ol' high screen-while-everyone-else-stands-around set. And they wonder why the bench has looked broke so far...His defense alone should give him the edge as the back-up point, but looks destined to struggle overall for stretches. Has potential and maturity to adjust quickly to the NBA, but how the coaching staff handles him will figure prominently in his success or lack of it.
Roko Ukic - long, wiry European import that is clearly not ready for the NBA yet. Has skill and a decent motor but is turnover prone and desperately needs time to adjust to the differences in the North American game. Is tall enough to play both backcourt spots, but his defense and lack of a consistent outside shot are two strikes against his seeing any significant playing time. Potential is there, and he should be developed as a lead guard; on that end, could be paired up with Solomon for (very) brief spells.
Kris Humphries - somewhat paradoxical: a banger type player that considers himself a skillful offensive threat, something that has become a bit of an inside joke with the local media. Despite this, his biggest problem is that he is far closer to 6'7'' than his listed 6'9''. Still, brings an element of toughness that was sorely lacking last season. Unable to consistently match-up against a starting caliber NBA player, but can be very effective against back-ups. Energy guy who is black hole-ish and turnover prone; will always look to score when he gets the ball. Has started to develop a mid-range shot, but is clearly at his best when attacking the rim. Gets credit for activity but under-length can hurt him, especially on defense where he often guards players who have several inches on him. Another player that suffers from Sam's rotation, not uncommon to see starter-like minutes in one game only to never leave the bench in the next. Locked in as team's 4th big.
Hassan Adams - already maligned in the press, who consider this shooting guard a small forward because of his very modest shooting range. Former Arizona Wildcat and New Jersey Net who got caught up in a numbers game playing behind VC, RJ, Snack Bar and Antoine Wright, and promptly left for Europe because of it. Brings value in that he is extremely athletic and would greatly benefit from open court opportunities derived from a Lackers-style up tempo second unit. Although many will scoff, could surprise the haters if given a chance. But with Sam's history of handling reserves, destined to see many DNPs this year. Comes into the season with a bruised shoulder.
Nathan Jawai - Australian with a heart issue. Came in as a prospect with considerable size and athleticism, has sat out most of the exhibition season once diagnosis of his condition was made. Extremely raw, makes sushi seem cooked, but possesses a discernible upside. There were some high hopes upon his acquisition that he could be a realistic upgrade to Humphries in the size and toughness areas. Considering his inexperience and unsettled health issues, it would be difficult to imagine him as anything more than a practice player at this stage.

How the second unit gels is dependent of how the coaching staff handles things now more than ever, since there's no relying on an NBA starting caliber point to bail things out. So I would be remiss if I did not mention a little something about the man in charge:
Coach Sam Mitchell - ex-NBA tough guy/role player that gained a rep as a locker room leader during playing career. Helped KG work out his early career kinks becoming a mentor during his run with the T-Wolves. Became a fixture on the head coaching scene with the Raps. Has a vitriolic relationship with the local media, constantly challenging their knowledge with the obvious disdain coming from the presence of one to many transplanted hockey writers. Suffered during his first years as Raptor coach, mostly because it occurred during the deteriorating VC period, whose fragility mixed with Sam's tough, no-nonsense approach like vodka and milk. Low points included allegedly being body slammed by Vince during a physical confrontation and being voted the worst coach in the NBA by an SI-sponsored player poll. Has enjoyed a mighty turn-around since; been credited with the development of roster mainstays, especially Bosh and is now generally considered to be very good at handling younger players. However, still has reputation of not being the strongest bench coach and lacking in the strategic acumen of even the more mediocre NBA coaches. Often a vocal complainer of player performance to media, has gradually backed off over time, and is slightly more measured with comments. Even novice fans have questioned his handling of the player rotation, and his inability to plug in a consistently effective starting small forward has turned the position into a roster eye sore. Colangelo has been known to look over his shoulder and give input which he expects to be applied. Finally has a roster talented enough to legitimately compete; with Bosh's extension lying in the balance, any future regressions (the big land mine being Bargnani's development) will most certainly lead to the removal of his dogged presence from the coach's box. Playoff success will go far in proving his worth or lack of.

Back Again - ' 08-09 The Raptor Scouting Report, Part 1

So it’s been a hot second since the last post. Summer's gone. And several political debates and some Kanye vocoder-isms later, the NBA season has finally come back around. So to mark the beginning of the exhibition season which was punctuated by the absolutely meaningless stomping of the Cavs in Cleveland last night, DotRunnings will present its yearly look at the Raps roster. Part 1 begins with the projected starters:

Chris Bosh – undisputed leader and team MVP. Perennial All-Star. One of the NBA’s elite bigs, and proved it as the best front court option on the gold medal-winning USA squad from Beijing, outplaying the far sexier and more heralded man-beast Dwight Howard. Did so by using an incredible skill set for his length. Will always lack overall size, and can still get pushed around by girthier opponents. However, now has wherewithal to get even using superb speed and quickness. Outstanding perimeter defender for a player his length. Money from 20 feet and in, and has extended jump shot to three point range. Can be a spectacular finisher around the basket, so teams still try and push him out of the box and take their chances with his jumper; consequently, can become over reliant on his perimeter game and will abandon the key for extended periods on offense. Excellent ball-handler for size with a great first step, much more concise with the ball, but still tends to go left. Expanded his game every year since rookie season, and his playoff performance versus Magic was a marketed improvement over previous post season efforts. Playing with a healthy JO should help in every facet of his on court game and alleviate the previously forced need for Bosh to match up with an opponent’s centre for extended periods. Projects intelligence and maturity, eschewing the more conventional ghetto posturing for marketing purposes and, thus, an ideal fit for Toronto. Become a chronic purveyor of YouTube comedy, and possesses a dry wit to go with a genuine telegenetic quality. Despite all of this, has a surprising number of detractors, which appears, at times, to include some refs; quizzically been rated by national magazine below directly comparable contemporaries such as Carlos Boozer. An extended playoff run is the only thing standing in the way of an absolute and universal respect.

Jermaine O’Neal - the newest prized piece in a decidedly necessary restructuring of the Raptor’s roster. Theoretically addresses several important Raptor needs, such as rebounding and interior defensive play. An All-Star caliber player when healthy, any question surrounding his play will revolve around his physical conditioning; conflicting reports have already surfaced out of the local press. Injuries have taken a toll in his previous two seasons in Indiana, limiting his court time and the effectiveness of his limited play. When healthy is known to be a dominant interior presence, as an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Very good one-on-one ability, clever in the post and possesses decent range, but tends to fall in love with mid-range jump shot and extended turn-around jumper. Would significantly improve the team’s ability to finish strong around the rim, another distinct sore spot for the Raps. Could be lethal in a high-low set with Bosh and on the pick and roll with Calderon. Jumped to straight to the League from high school, sat on the Trailblazer bench for a couple of seasons before emerging as a perennial All-Star. Traded to Indiana where he played an infamous role in the Rumble at the Palace dropping a fan with an overhand right while slipping that resembled something out of Rocky flick. Becomes the highest paid player on the squad by a significant amount for the next two seasons; a calculated risk for Colangelo as JO’s contract expires exactly when Bosh will be expecting his re-up. Expectations vacillate wildly here, but something resembling seasonal averages of 16-18ppg, 9-11 rpg, 1-2 bpg will put the Raps in the top 3 in the Conference and give Toronto the most feared 1-2 front court combination in the League.

Jose Calderon – the Spanish straw that stirs the Raptor’s mix. ‘Ocho’s’ play last season single-handedly made T.J. Ford expendable and vaulted his name into All-Star consideration. Demonstrated a phenomenal ability to keep turnovers to a minimum, finishing the season generously outdistancing the rest of the League as the leader in assists-turnover ratio. After taking over for an injured Ford, became a double-double machine while shooting a spectacular percentage from the field for a lead guard. Consistency with pull up jumper from 20 feet in makes him incredibly difficult to guard and, at times, became the Raptors most effective option in the half court. Has extended range to 3 point line and can no longer be left open behind the arc. Absolutely lethal when he starts getting to the basket and finishing. Once inside free throw line, will completely abandon pull up. Good size for a point guard and possesses above average athleticism to go with it. Has steadily improved not only his outside shooting but his frequency of getting to the rim and ability to finish with both hands. Already shown tendency to be a big game player, saving his best performance of last season for a dramatic win at Boston, single-handedly giving Celtic defenders fits. Ultimately, an excellent distributor who will keep the ball moving as a traditionally-inclined playmaking point. Still shaky defensively against the League’s quicker point guards, but overall, has improved markedly on the defensive end since his rookie season. Will benefit greatly from having a healthy JO as a teammate on both ends and could be automatic running the pick and roll with him. Readily pushes the ball, but has critics who point out his tendency to pull up a fast break and avoid taking chances to create opportunity. While deriding his lack of flash, what those critics fail to realize is how efficiently Calderon is able to make Coach Mitchell’s one-set offense work, a deceptively challenging task in itself. Destined to take on heavy minutes this season, as the back-ups are primarily untested.

Anthony Parker - Steady A.P. has been a good investment for Raps at shooting guard since being brought over leaving behind his League MVP status in Europe. Solid player with above average but not superior athleticism. Fundamental part of the perimeter-oriented personality of the team, possesses three-point range that can run hot or cold as a spot-up shooter. Excellent catch-and-shoot player, would benefit from having more plays run for him, but is more often than not relegated to predictably fending for himself in the Raps one-dimensional offensive schemes. Has the ability to create off the dribble, and can be very effective going to the rim when catching the opposition’s defense off guard. Added dimension of being one the Raptors' better finishers in the open court. Realistically, not a primary offensive option, as against the League’s better defenders, he tends to get stuck taking long, very difficult fade-away jumpers. To his credit, Parker will make a surprising number of them. Very solid fundamentally-based defensive player who is consistently effective against all but the NBA’s elite offensive players; still good for a couple of opportunistic steals and the occasional block. Great role player and solid contributor heading into a contract year.

Jamario Moon - captured the imagination of the Raptor faithful by going from an undrafted, mature CBA All-Star to a part-time starter and all-around energy guy. An absolute athletic freak, immediately stood out on a roster that was generally very average in this area. Able to generally flourish as Sam showed uncommon patience in his development. Positives clearly out-weighed the negatives; at times appeared to be the only Raptor other than Bosh that could consistently finish above the rim. A solid rebounder that is good for an oop a game, his tendency to provide above the rim highlight caliber plays made him an instant fan favourite. Very good defensive player with potential to become a legitimate stopper as he is surprisingly effective on the ball; long arms, quickness and leaping ability make it difficult for opponents to get around him or back him down in the post in spite of their apparent advantage in strength. An equally effective off the ball defender, Moon can provide imposing weak side help. Despite all the fanfare of his rookie season, it is clear he is still getting comfortable on the court and it showed most conspicuously on the offensive end, specifically in the half court where he often appeared lost while aimlessly floating around the perimeter. Due to quickness and leaping ability, opponents backed off and crowded driving lanes, forcing Moon to prove he could consistently make open jumpers, which was something that never truly happened. Unfortunately for Raps, also developed the habit of never looking to drive, often to the dismay and public derision of Mitchell. He is, however, excellent in the open court and no one would benefit more from Raptors getting into transition at a greater rate. It is absolutely essential he force defenses to guard him honestly; to do this, he must improve his jumper and his ball-handling to potentially fill Raptors’ single greatest need as the auxiliary scorer/slasher that punishes teams who sag on Bosh and, now, JO. Has all the tools to shore up the Raps weakest starting position, and would make Toronto a legitimate championship threat if he were ever put it all together. But that's an incredibly, almost unreasonably, large 'if', as his skill set needs to catch up with the other elements of his game. So right now, it would only be fair to consider Moon an energy guy whose still learning, with a current upside that considerably outweighs the liability. Contract year also looms large in the background.