Last Minute Post: And it all comes down to this…Nets vs. Raptors Playoff Preview

So the Raps seemed destined to cruise into a nice, safe first round series with the Arenas-less, Butler-less Wiz. Now it’s cardiac arrestsville for us Raps fans, cuz guess who’s coming back to town – who says you can never go home? That’s right, Vince Effin’ Carter and the somewhat streaking Nets. Personally, I’d be lying if I said that I’m happy about this: spin this how you want, but how could anybody be upset with a guaranteed pass to the 2^nd round that the Washington series potentially afforded. And to top it off, there appears to be a bit of momentum behind the Jerz, which capped off their season splitting Bulls wigs (thanks Chicago…) to secure this Atlantic Division showdown. On paper, I almost think it would’ve been to the Nets benefit to play Chicago in the first round (they did take the season’s series 3-1 and appear to match up well with those no superstar having-punks), but considering the boiling emotional undercurrent and infamous history these two teams share, it would be difficult to judge a Nets/Raptors series by match-ups alone. Which doesn’t mean I won’t try and do it tho…so here it is, the traditional break-down.

Point Guard
Nets: The Nets have Ason Kidd, and it’s interesting that while the Nets have gone 5-1 in April (8-2 in their last 10) Jason has reverted back to ‘Ason’. In the month of April, Kidd has been shooting 27.6%, averaging 8.8 points a game: during this time he has compiled more assists and rebounds (!) than points. It’s safe to say, the only place Kidd will be putting up big numbers is on Richmond Street (Inside…perhaps…fo’ old time’s sake…): ladies, if you’re looking for a recently divorced light-skin, be ready to mingle.
Inappropriate comments about one’s skin colour and private life aside, we haven’t even gotten to the biggest drawback of having Kidd on the court: his defense. I hear that some ‘professional’ commentators have finally started to join the bandwagon in acknowledging that Kidd is unable defend any above average point guard in the Lig. Although this may be the obvious precedent, this is a man who let Anthony Johnson go for a Curtis in the final game of last year’s playoffs series against the Pacers. At this point in his career, it would be inaccurate to label Kidd as anything less than a defensive liability. It will take some serious smoke and mirrors to keep this fact from being exploited, but expect Lawrence Frank to try…don’t be surprised if you see some extended periods of the Nets using zone, especially when TJ is on the court.
These are two big negatives, so why is Kidd so important, vital even, to the overall functioning of the Nets? He can pass. To put it short, he is the only player on the Nets roster who will pass, voluntarily. This Nets squad is not particularly good with ball movement, so it is almost essential that he is logging big minutes to keep the team running smoothly. Plus, he is also one the best rebounders on the team, an important fact in that he can initiate the break better by hitting leakers as opposed to running it himself. Either way, his court savvy is irreplaceable for the Nets. It’s like the song goes: “You take the good, you take the bad…”
The back-up is Marcus Williams, a predictably erratic rookie, best known for his college exploits of not passing to Denham Brown and stealing labtops. Like the rest of the Nets, he appears loathe to pass, but has shown the ability to create for himself and even, at times, finish. His one on one tendencies, while making him generic to the roster also, unsurprisingly, cause him to be turnover prone: don’t expect to see him much this series.
Raps: The play of point guards TJ Ford and Jose Calderon have been a large reason for the Raps success this season…y’all know the names and the deal. Both have enjoyed moments of spectacular play, and compliment each other nicely. It should be interesting to see who Sam leaves out on the court during crunch time.
Overall, the Raptor point guards must be aggressive offensively and look to take advantage of Kidd, who will, no doubt, wear down over the series. That being said, if Frank throws out the junk defenses, don’t be surprised to see extended periods of Calderon, whose poise and outside jumper will be a sticking point for the Nets. It shouldn’t be surprising to see the Raps outscoring the Nets by 20 at this position…
Advantage: RAPTORS

Shooting Guard
Nets: I, more than anyone, am weary of this analogy, but sadly it seems to ring true every time Vince pops back into our lives: he is that girl that we had the messy break-up with and continues to leave us affected to this day. Everyone knows all about Vince, but to his credit, he has absolutely put this team on his back down the stretch, playing some of his best basketball heading into the series and is a legitimate triple-double threat. There is always an ‘x’ factor (ex…heh, heh…pardon the pun) with Vince and his inherent immaturity still befuddles to this day: will he take on and rise to the challenge of an overtly hostile crowd, or will he buckle at the first couple of missed shots? So much drama with the ex’s…
Raps: Anthony Parker has been another Colangelo steal, a glue guy who has had a stellar end of the season, leading the Raptors in scoring in a number of games down the stretch. A smart and tough defensive player, Parker’s three pointers from the corner have become an indispensable part of the Raptor’s half court sets. Juan Dixon has been an exceptional mid-season pick-up and someone who has earned Mitchell trust, as he has been given significant playing time since joining Toronto. Dixon is an exceptional scorer who is adept at creating for himself and knocking down shots, but lacks the size to be a stopper defensively.
Overall, it will be tough to deny Mr. Carter, especially given his recent form. The Raptors will have to make him work for everything he gets and play him as physical as possible (which is why Joey Graham will get his turn with Vince). Hopefully the crowd will get to him, but that’s another double-edged sword with Vince. If there’s a positive to this match up, it’s that the Raptors appear to finally have players that will produce some offense from this position – at least it will keep the Nets honest, because you know Vince isn’t trying to expend any energy on defense.
Advantage: NETS

Small Forward
Nets: As friend of the family Bill Walton alluded to during their season ending game against Chicago, Richard Jefferson is not the same player he was before his most recent season-ending injury, probably because he’s not playing near 100%. While not on the level of Kidd, RJ can do his fair share of brick-laying (even when healthy), as in the last two games he has shot a combined 7-30: however, he has shown an ability to compensate by drawing fouls, as he was 21-24 from the free throw line during those games. While not providing the same defensive presence the team has come to expect (they already have Vince dogging it on the regular), a crippled Jefferson is still, for all intents and purposes, the trailing portion of the Nets big three. Bostjan Nachbar may actually be a better indicator than RJ on the Nets overall success: during the month of April, he has averaged 15.2 points per game coming off the bench, while shooting 54.8% from the field and a blazing 59.4% from three.
Raps: Since Garbajosa went down, Joey Graham seems to have slid into Sam Mitchell’s good graces, as he has been a started all through April, averaging a respectable 15.2 ppg on 49 % shooting. A big, strong bodied presence when active, Joey has never been accused of being an intelligent player. I would say MoPete could surprise people with his production in the playoffs but now he has to overcome a recently hyper-extended knee in addition to his place in Mitchell’s doghouse. Still, if he can manage to not shoot every jumper fading in random directions, he could put a lot of pressure on the Nets team defense – something he would love to do to the team of his old buddy Vince.
This match-up is a toss up, particularly with an injured RJ logging big minutes (35.5 in April) semi-healthy and the savvy rookie Garbajosa out. The small forward position has been a sore spot all year for the Raps, as consistent scoring from the 3 has been hard to come by: when they do get it, they are hard to beat. Whoever manages to step up (Graham, Nachbar, Peterson) at this position could be a difference maker in the series.
Advantage: EVEN

Power Forward
Nets: Awww, suki suki. Look what we have here. A big reason the Nets are stringing win streaks together at the end of the season has been the presence of the Mikki Moore and to a lesser extent, Josh Boone off the bench. Moore, in particular has been holding down the frontcourt, sliding into Nenad Krstic’s role of knocking down his 6-10 shot attempts from 15 feet with surprising regularity. Even Boone got into the act, regularly putting up double-doubles with some extended minutes in March. But make no mistake here, there’s a lot of subterfuge going on here with the statistics: both these players derive their offense solely off the consequence of the various iso sets and the resultant double-teaming of their more heralded team mates, especially Vince. These guys create nothing for themselves, and are not a threat in that capacity.
Raptors: …on the other hand, we have Chris Bosh. If this is a defining series for the rebuilding Raptors, this goes double for the legacy of Bosh. As the line goes, if Chris Bosh comes out hungry, the Nets frontcourt definitely qualifies as something to eat. It would not be outrageous to say Bosh, individually, has more talent than the Nets’ big men, combined. It’s just a matter of showing it.
Lawrence Frank has probably been losing sleep over this. Bosh will, no doubt, see a series of defensive looks and traps from various angles to keep him off balance. It will be more of a mental series for Chris than any other Raptor: like Vince, he will get the superstar treatment, and by treatment, I mean focus. Don’t be surprised to see Jason ‘I got 6 fouls to give’ Collins get matched up with Bosh in the post, furiously trying to push him out of the key to the 18-20 foot range. Funny thing is, Bosh can hit those too. For Moore/Boone to get anything here will be a total let down for Toronto and a huge victory for Jersey. Conversely, Frank may have to concede Bosh’s points, accepting that reality and working around it.
Advantage: RAPTORS

Centre (yeah, you up in Canada now, bitch…)
Nets: The Nets thin front court got thinner when ‘Need a vowel’ Krstic went down for the season. ‘6 fouls to give’ Collins occupies the starter’s position here, but don’t expect to see him on the floor for starter’s minutes. He brings virtually nothing offensively to the team, although he might be their best rebounding big (although still less effective than their POINT GUARD). He’ll probably use at least half of those 6 fouls in the 20 odd minutes he’ll see of the court. Expect to see the resurrection of Uncle Cliffy Robinson for the playoffs. This old man will be dusted off and allowed to randomly jack from the perimeter: their version of an ancient Bargnani, if Bargnani was born in Buffalo and had a love for that good smoke. With the Raptor’s potential to get up and down the court, NJ will also probably be using a lot of small line-ups.
Raptors: Our version of the make-shift centre comes in the form of Rasho Nesterovic. He is a polished big with some surprising passing ability, a decent mid range game and the ability to play a goalie-like role on defense. What he also happens to be is the opposite of hard. This is a 7 footer who is less likely to dunk from inside 5 feet than any other 7 foot individual playing basketball on the planet. Like Collins he doesn’t usually see starters minutes, and will contribute on a proportionally basis to his minutes.
The script-flipper here is the presence of super-rook and imported Italian flavor, Andrea Bargnani. As a legit 7 footer, he will be a mess to match up with for the Nets. His game and poise has developed by leaps and bounds during the season, and his confidence in sticking the 3 is almost at a veteran level. The Nets only option maybe to have their most mobile big, Moore, chasing Andrea around outside while Collins hacks away at Bosh. Frank will be praying for the rookie jitters to strike, because if they don’t, it could get really scary for NJ here.
Advantage: RAPTORS

Bench
Nets: Lawrence Frank will probably run an 8 man rotation, so expect Nachbar, Boone and Uncle Cliffy to be the chosen three with Williams, Antoine Wright and Hasan Adams as the odd men out. Nachbar’s three point touch will be the definition of bench scoring for Jerz, and if the Raptors let him average strong double-figures, it will be a problem. With outside shooting at a premium, the Nets really will miss Eddie House here.
Raptors: Calderon, Dixon and MoPete will provide the bulk of the bench scoring and figure at least two out of three to enjoy a good series. Kris Humphries will be supplying the bulk off the bench and depending on how Sam wants to play it, his role could be significantly lessened with a smaller line-up. Personally, I think the under-lengthed Humphries could wreck some havoc with the inadequate rebounders that litter the NJ roster.
Ultimately, the Raptors must limit Nachbar’s effectiveness and the open looks Vince et al could provide; he has enough skill to keep defenses honest and will even put it on the floor occasionally. The rest of the Net bench is, realistically, just filler. Expect Calderon to excel in this series, in particular, and could create a huge buzz for himself by dogging the still highly regarded Kidd. When the Raps offense is running crisply, there will be a lot of open looks available. It shouldn’t be too surprising to see Dixon and/or MoPete to have some reasonably big games. Advantage: RAPTORS

Coaching
Nets: Lil’ Lawrence Frank has managed to get his team tuned up and peaking at just the right time. Under his direction, Frank has managed to get the team to understand their strengths and the Nets seem to have accepted the offensive leadership that only Vince can provide. A lot of smoke and mirrors have come into play with the Nets success, as even Frank has had to except that his roster is inherently flawed and work to find ways to make more talented teams play down to his team’s level (what other team in the Lig will win while expecting one of their best players (Kidd) to get significantly outscored by his opposite number). He deserves a lot of credit for the team’s relative success.
Raptors: Coach Sam Mitchell has turned a lot of heads by successfully orchestrating the turnaround of a young, unfamiliar roster. The ability to develop players seems to be his greatest asset as he has yet to be called a superior tactician. While he appears much more polished in dealing with players (well, people in general) than in the past, Sam’s doghouse still plays a large part in his handling of the rotation (ask MoPete). This series could provide some significant insight into the question of Sam’s ability to successfully coach a contender.
Advantage: NETS

Intangibles
Nets: Comes down to a single word: experience. Yes, the Nets are coming into this series on a roll, something that the Raps cannot claim. But ultimately, the playoff experience on this roster should bolster the confidence of a team that clearly is lacking in overall talent. The holes on this roster are tremendous. But Lawrence Frank has managed to find a style for this team to play to give them a chance to win on any given night. Kidd deserves much of the credit for facilitating this style, which ultimately works to enable Vince. Defensive effort will also be a focal point: the Nets will have to force or merely hope the Raptors are not at their best if they are to win this series.
Raptors: The fact that the Raptors have managed to reel off wins after a rough start should come as no surprise. The team has bought into a philosophy of sharing the basketball that belies the traditional ‘isolate the superstar and wait for results’ ethic the permeates throughout the Lig. At their worst, the Raptors dump the ball to Bosh in a random part of the court and just stand around the perimeter and watch, which is par for the course for a good portion of teams. Even with Garbajosa injured, the Raps have a deep and diverse roster, which combines some unique talents with some stabilizing agents: they can be very tough to stop when they are clicking. The Raps must remember to do the little things, and play physical when they have to. The team defense has also been shaky at times and must tighten up if Toronto expects any sort of playoff run. At the end of the day, this is a young team with little playoff experience (even the coach is new to this), but expect the Euro-influence to provide a stabilizing influence.
Advantage: DRAW

Some possible scenarios...

What a Nets win will look like: An uglied up game that features Vince having a big to gigundus game with a secondary scorer emerging. The Nets will out rebound the Raps and work their iso-based offense to shoot a relatively high percentage, generally nailing their open looks. Chris Bosh and TJ Ford will have varying degrees of sub par games and the Raptors, as a team, will shoot horribly. Any advantages in skill the Raptors may have, particularly in team play, will be nullified by the impeccably crafty tactics of Frank and the inability of Sam to figure a way for his inexperienced squad to overcome them. Expect the Nets to score in the high 90s and the Raps to be in the high 80s, low 90s. If the Raps do not completely succumb to ugly ball and manage to hang in and keep it close, they will collapse down the stretch, with Jerz riding Vince for all he’s worth in crunch time. Either way, VC will end the game by searching for his moms and locking eyes with her, as they will share the most unknowing knowing stare in the history of man. Raptor fans will alternately want to cry and puke. Bleeding may also be involved. If New Jersey moves on to the 2^nd round (where they will promptly lose), they will leave behind the scattered, emotionally-drained carcasses of Raptor fans strung out like crack heads aimlessly across the GTA (and at least one in LA).

What a Raptors win will look like: All cylinders will be firing for the Raptors as they will revel in their balanced team scoring with 4 or 5 guys reaching double figures. Bosh will either dominate and have a huge individual game or use the attention he will garner to provide his team mates with open looks and have a solid statistical game. The Raps will shoot well to extremely well, as none of Frank’s defensive schemes and gimmicks will work. Vince will have a big to average game as no secondary scorer emerges. The Raptors will put on a show and win comfortably. If the Raptors happen to win a close game, they will have escaped with a victory while succumbing to Jersey’s lowest common denominator ball. At this point, the Raps must realize they have completely lucked out and should appropriately strive to never be put in that situation again.
As the series closes out, New Jersey fans will curse and wish their team had settled for the lottery. Everyone will know Kidd can no longer guard anyone and VC will agree to terms with Orlando in the summer. Jay-Z will get that feeling he got when he first heard ‘Ether’, then make a call to LeBron.

Final Outcome: It’s clear this series could be a flashpoint for the Raptors’ future trajectory as a franchise: although even I've been overly dramatic about this, their world will not end if the Raptors do not to make it to the 2nd round. In a weird way, Jersey is coming into the playoffs with an almost necessary delusional state to succeed in the short term: this team is clearly not built for a long playoff run and at the end of the day, could making it to the second round possibly be considered any sort of accomplishment?With tip time rapidly approaching, I'll leave it at this. There will be high points and there will be low points, but regardless what most of the experts say, I have to believe the better team will come out of an extended series. I'd say 7 games, but I really think we can win in Jersey.

RAPTORS in 6

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