Tuesday, October 30, 2007

2007-08 NBA Western Conference Preview

So tonight, the NBA officially begins with a trio of Western Conference clashes, Dotrunnings is going to go out on a limb and give you a fearless look into the future. Don’t be scared by what you are about to read, just embrace it as I take no responsibility for any extreme unforeseen incidences that may knock my predictions out of wack. Now get that money…
First, the bottom of the barrel:

Stuck in no man’s land

Clips – It’s just not happening without Elton, but the Livingston situation doesn’t help either. They seemed to have picked a winner in Al Thornton, who should get a lot of burn. A lower case Playoff team with Elton, the other L.A. team is looking hard at the lottery.

Kings – Bibby is out for the first couple of months of the season, and it might actually help the chemistry. Brad Miller apparently has taken the Olympic team disrespect to play the sort of ball that got him on the team to begin with and Kevin Martin is destined to show last season wasn’t a fluke. However, these are the only rays of sunshine, as it’s looking pretty bleak in Sactown. A Kobe lite situation is brewing here, as the Kings have to figure out what they are gonna do about Ron-Ron’s long term future.

Wolves – Apparently Al Jefferson will get a chance to have a break out season. This is an incredibly young team that has become even more unstable with point-in-training Randy Foye out for an extended period with a knee injury. Let the rebuilding begin!

Rebuilding upwards

GrizzMemphis managed to hold off from making the Bulls the next NBA champions by keeping Gasol, and now appear to be on their way back to being relevant. Although all indications point to Conley Jr. being brought along slowly, expect Spanish import Juan Carlos Navarro to crack the rotation and then some. Mike Miller had a good summer, but best case scenario here is that Rudy Gay and Darko both prove they are legitimate NBA starters. Best thing about this team may be that Raptor’s dream coach Marc Iavaroni is in charge: may catch some teams off guard and steal some games out West with that up-tempo style.

Portland – I felt compelled to put these guys here, even though the rash of unbelievably bad luck with the injury bug has crippled this franchise for this year. So while they are on their way back to the lottery, Portland needs to assess several areas for next year, namely: who is their point guard of the future; is Martell Webster ever going to be an NBA starter and will LaMarcus Aldridge develop into the stud that certain folks swear he will become. Next year should be interesting…

Seattle – The team of a thousand swing players looks like they are gonna try the Durant shooting guard experiment. This could really backfire as KD may be the most heavily scouted rookie in the Lig in years and shooters to open up the floor will be at a premium. They will need some time, but while they are figuring it out, the Sonics need to know if they have an NBA centre on their roster and who is the most suitable point guard to lead them into the future.

Lower Case Playoff Teams

Denver – Some folks like these guys to be a real threat to the big three in the Conference and if they come in on a roll at the end of the season, they could be scary in the Playoffs. But in actuality, these guys are the Knicks of the Western Conference (comparisons to the Knicks = trouble) and for all the talent they have accumulated on the roster, it is belied by the fact that:
1. They play no defense, whatsoever
2. They have nobody who looks to distribute the ball to all that star power
3. George Karl and Isiah have more in common coaching-wise than any Nugget fan would care to admit.
Throw in some suspect character-players on the roster (is J.R. Smith actually related to DeShawn Stevenson?) and you have a recipe for a self-limiting 6th seed. Should be interesting to see how Kenyon fits back in the mix tho.

Golden State – the anti-Spurs. Their up-tempo style constitutes an incredibly high-risk form of winning basketball: sure, they can beat anybody when they are firing on full cylinders, but can you expect to maintain that pace over a full playoff run, never mind a full season? Regardless, these guys should be a lot of fun to watch, with a lot of ups and downs for their fans. The loss of JRich shouldn’t hurt too much with this roster but to have any sort of shot at winning stability, they need Monta Ellis and Al Harrington to step up their productivity and cause some match-up problems. Look out for Kelenna Azubuike, who tore up the pre-season.

Lackers – The team I love to hate, and they are in some trouble. The years of in-house, in-family, upper management in-fighting have taken its toll, as the Purple and Gold have barely managed a significant roster up-grade in the past x-amount of seasons. And guess who is vexed. They really should blow up this team, but the fanbase won’t stand for it and Coach Fake-Buddhist Jax would exile himself at the notion of a true rebuilding project. So here the Lakers stand, thier best case scenario is on the cusp of a Playoff spot in the more competitive conference. And they don’t even have Smush on the roster to kick around/blame stuff for. Laker fans are hoping Fisher, rookie Javaris Crittenton and Chris Mihm (!?!) make a difference and Andrew Bynum becomes that dude at 21 (!!?): again, the up-side is limited here. However, if the Kobe trade talks start to heat up even more, you can be assured this season is a wrap.

Hornets – Looking hard at that last Playoff spot, and have a much more legitimate upside than the Lackers with a truly influential star point guard in Chris Paul and a brand new 2-3 combo with MoPete joining former injury-casualty Peja Stojakovic. These guys had serious trouble scoring last year and the roster revamping will address that. Sure, their primary low post threat in David West is a little shaky by Lig-standards and Tyson Chandler brings little offense to the centre position, but as a team, these guys rebound great. If they can stave off the injury bug, a .500 year could get them the 8th seed.

Now we get to the teams that are built to go deep into the Playoffs, as their rosters are strong and well-rounded enough to get them through the regular season. But the Playoffs are a different world, and it was clear from watching the real NBA Finals, i.e. the Spurs-Suns series, that two things ultimately determine success in the post season:
The ability to engage your team in Playoff intensity defense.
Having three options that can create their own points regularly against Playoff intensity defense.
The Playoffs irreducibly become a world of half-court, slug-it-out, high intensity, match-up oreinted basketball and nobody reinforces this more than the defending Champs. Here’s a look at the two tier system of contenders in a conference whose winner should be the next title holder for the ’07-08 season.

2nd Tier: A year or two away from seriously contending.

Houston – Things are really looking up for the Rockets as they have been one of the more active teams in the off-season in changing the look of the team. It all starts with coaching, as more so than what Rick Aledman brings to the table as the new bench boss, it was evident that the Van Gundy-era needed to be put to an end. So with the addition of Argentina’s best player during the summer’s Olympic qualifying, PF Luis Scola and the sudden potential re-emergence of Bonzi Wells, the Rockets are looking like a potential beast. Houston’s biggest concern, other than remaining healthy (i.e. T-Mac, Yao), is to sort out the over-stocked backcourt situation, as Steve Francis theoretically is a much better idea than Steve Francis practically. Look for Tracy to assume the point-forward gig with Mike James getting starter’s minutes to help spread the court, with Rafer being phased out as the season progresses. And 4th seed is realistically there for the taking…

Utah – The Jazz had a nice-little run last year, as the cement themselves as the Raptors of the West being that: they have a promising PG situation going with a blossoming, productive PF who loves to face the basket and a centre who bombs from the outside but are in dire need of sorting out production from the middle of the line-up (namely the ‘2’) which is painfully lacking. Ronnie Brewer has stepped up in the pre-season to provide the sort of athletic, slashing presence that is making Jazz fans salivate. However, the most important issue with the roster is the ongoing Kirilenko-saga and how he fits in the offense; he seems to have backed off from the trade demands, but Sloan needs adjust his rigid sets to get more out of AK-47. If this team ever gets a dangerous third half-court threat, they could start knocking on the door of the big three…

1st Tier: One of these teams will win the title this year – it’s virtually a wrap.

San Antonio – Big, bad and boring defending champs. What more can you say about them. Far and away, the best coached team in the Lig, possessing a few dominate talents blended in with embracing role players. That being said, they got the kind of heady play and lucky bounces that great teams manufacture and are ultimately tough to replicate; the Spurs were a forearm shiver away from being 2nd round causalities. Return the same battle-tested roster, with potential upgrades in SF Ime Udoka and Darius Washington at the backup PG spot. The only thing you can say is that they haven’t repeated. Yet.

Dallas – regular season juggernauts. Manage to f*ck up teams with that short line-up, seemingly at will. But everyone saw what that short line-up can do in an extended series against some bad match-ups. Dallas is hoping that Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell shore up their bench, but what would really help is if Devin Harris has a break-through season and can managed to hit a jumper consistently. It’d be impossible to deny that this team is shook and Dirk is carrying a lot of weight on his back after MVPing a first round exit last year. Still, they should be a machine again during the regular season. Leading to an anxious Playoffs again…

Phoenix – after some Marion grumblings and an Amare knee scare during the pre-season, they've settled down and there’s a lot to like about this squad. Grant Hill has looked great and could be a formidable third option in the half court if Barbosa comes up firing blanks like in last year’s Spurs series. Because we know that for all Marion does for this team, he is not that guy to create his own points in the half-court. Amare has shown indications of having a monster season this year, but Boris Diaw really needs to step up his contributions to make the front court go, especially without Kurt Thomas there to provide the intangibles. D’Antoni absolutely has to manage this team to be healthy and not burnt out coming into the Playoffs, even if it means a few less regular season wins.

So who’s gonna make it through? There’s a lot of best case scenarios that could involve Houston, Utah and to a lesser extent Golden State and Denver making some serious noise but probability dictates it will always comes down to that quandary at the top: Phoenix has a team that can play the Spurs fairly even, but do not seem to match up well against Dallas, while the Mavs are traditionally hopeless when facing the prospect of the Spurs in an extended series. This hierarchy will probably be derailed come Playoff time, as Dallas will be the resident Conference shook ones, from their coach on down, facing serious child-star type anxiety in brighter spotlight.
What it will come down to is who will be able to elevate their game beyond the lowest common denominator style that rules in the grueling series grind that is the Western Conference Playoffs. And to this point, nobody has a higher base level of play than San Antonio, as their chemistry and ability to get the job done is nothing short of seminal. Someone will have to step up to take away their title.
This year, I believe it will be the Suns that take that next step. They have all the motivation in the world after last year’s David Stern-sponsored 2nd round debacle of a series. Tim Duncan will always be an almost impossible match-up for Phoenix, so really, losing Kurt Thomas is more moot than people will have you believe with his defensive performance against TD being lionized for no particular reason other than being gutty: they will have to get over this. What really hurt the Suns the most in that Spurs series was that their half-court game became exclusively a Nash-Amare affair, and they were unable to manufacture points in any other way. Expecting Barbosa not to flame out this year and Diaw to step up would be hopeful yet not guaranteed notions; both still more reasonable prospects than expecting Marion to suddenly develop a one-on-one game that would effective against top flight defenses. As easy as it is to be skeptical about this move, picking up Grant Hill may the one that puts them over the top, providing a reliable scoring option as long as he is physically able for the Playoffs. It will be vital that the Suns bring that proverbial ‘chip-on-the-shoulder’ edge to their game, as their style over substance reputation may be exaggerated by the press, it is not entirely unfounded.
This may seem to be as good a year as any for the Spurs to finally repeat, as the only team in the conference psychologically prepared to compete with them is the Suns, keeping in mind the frail mental state that plagues the Mavs and relative inexperience of the rest of the pack. And head to head, Phoenix may have finally gotten together a roster that can finish the job. It may be a cop out to chose a personal favourite to make it happen, but I’m putting it out there that this is the year the good guys get it right. Now I don’t think anyone can feel comfortable predicting an entertaining NBA Finals, but there’s always the solace of the high drama looming in the Western Conference bracket to tide you over.

Friday, October 19, 2007

It's about that time: 2007-08 Raptors Roster Preview

As the Raptors move past their European tour of duty and head straight onto the rapidly approaching freight train that is the regular season, Dotrunnings will begin our look at the ’07-08 NBA season by individually examining the players that will comprise the most likely version of the Raps’ season-opening roster. Next week will feature a team profile and conference predictions.

Chris BoshThe unequivocal center-piece: a perennial All-Star for years to come. Only concern is belaboring foot issues, which still show signs of not going away. Maybe the quickest/fastest power forward in the NBA, a very active presence on the court and will mix it up in spite of a pronounced lack of girth. Has extended his shooting range out to the three-point line, and while still a streak shooter, is very consistent within 17 feet resulting in a tendency to settle for jumpers. Needs to consistently mix face-up instincts with some semblance of a back-to-the-basket game: the Nets beat him up pretty good inside during the Playoffs without much interference from the refs, and as a sign of growing maturity, Chris stuck it out despite mixed results. While his youth underlines the fact that he is still growing as a leader, Bosh has become an increasingly more vocal presence in the locker room. A paradigm of coachable focus, Chris has taken the baton from Vince as face of the Raptors and hasn’t stopped running since.

T.J. FordTexas bookend to Bosh, considered the fastest player end to end in the Lig. Waterbug quick, allowing him to get his pull-up jumper off at will: while improving as a shooter off the dribble, can often be out of control. A very streaky stand-still shooter from long range, which is actually an improvement from college and early in his career. Still learning his comfort zone when finishing around the rim, where his outstanding quickness and jumping ability are contrasted by an obvious lack of strength, T.J. missed his share of lay-ins last year, which leaves plenty of room for improvement this season. Tends to over-dribble and will, at times, stagnate the offense by exclusively looking for his own shot; this is contrasted by the several clutch baskets he made during isolations throughout the season, namely the buzzer-beating, game-winning pull-up in Los Angeles against the Clips. Needs to be more active on defense, especially generating steals, as his lack of size makes him a liability as a stopper where he is ass-out when dealing with NBA picks. Plagued by inconsistency, T.J. needs to level out his decision-making which would ultimately elevate him to the top tier of NBA point guards; outstanding in the open court, Ford would most benefit from a team-wide commitment to up-tempo play. Despite the official stance of management, due to the presence of Calderon, his career as a Raptor is dependent on speeding-up the development of his floor game as he could eventually become the featured piece of a trade package to shore up holes in the roster: 18-16 points on 45% shooting with 9-10 assists per game should keep the vultures away.

Andrea Bargnani – young Italian pup whose promising play in his rookie season allowed the Raptor faithful to breathe a collective sigh of relief. Now, big things are projected of 7-footer with a skill set often compared to Dirk Nowitzki’s. Remarkably agile with excellent, if not sometimes slightly awkward-looking, footwork, Andrea has developed a lethal pull-up from 20 feet and in and possesses beyond 3-point range, which makes him deadly in the open court or as a trailer in a developing half-court set. His successful transition into the starting line-up will depend almost exclusively on how well he plays close to the basket on both ends: the Raptors need Bargnani to be a rebounding presence right away, while any stand-out defensive play would be a bonus at this point. Clearly a player with a tremendous offensive up-side, Bargnani will be heavily scouted this season; thus it will be essential that he develops some sort of post ability before teams start exclusively guarding him with smaller players to offset his guard-like Euro perimeter game. Will play a big part in the continued Raps success for this season, as management and fans alike will expect a substantial statistical leap to be made this season.

Anthony Parker – in one season, has become an anchor for the squad and a Mitchell favourite. Steady shooting guard is a solid complementary player with a well-rounded game after leaving European ball as a perennial MVP candidate. A steady shooter and solid, though not exactly explosive, scorer, Parker is also considered the Raps’ backcourt defensive stopper. Offensively, he is at his best when curling off screens and taking advantage of defensive rotations sagging off him, while tending to resort to fade-aways on the rare isolation opportunity. Anthony is an excellent team player/locker-room citizen, who will be trusted to start despite a slow pre-season: has another few years to go before officially becoming long in the tooth. One of the extreme beige members of the roster, Parker can appear so yellow at times that he is affectionately referred to, in these parts, as ‘Jaundice’.

Jose Calderon – ‘Ocho’ is, hands down, the best back-up point guard in the Lig, and almost the perfect counter-point to the at-times electric, at-times frustrating Ford. Bolstered by his recent outstanding international play for Spain, Calderon is growing into the consummate quarterback who makes excellent decisions running the offense. His increasingly lethal jumper is juxtaposed by an under-rated ability to get to the rim and finish; Jose still has yet to develop much of a mid-range game. While displaying a tendency to get torched by the Lig’s quicker points, Calderon’s size and active hands make him an above average defender. Anchoring a potent second unit, Jose’s rapid development will certainly put pressure on Sam to bolster his minutes, which may result in seeing both Ford and Calderon on the court for extended periods. Calderon’s continued progression as a stud point guard could ultimately make Ford expendable, a reality Colangelo may have to face sooner than later.

Jason Kapono – Shooter extradornaire who came out of Miami with a rep as the Lig’s preeminent 3-point marksman: Colangelo bit with a big contract to shore up the small forward quandary. Playing time should be determined by his ability (or lack of) defensively, but may still find himself as a staple in the starting line-up because of his complimentary offensive skill set/ability to open up the floor for the ‘stars’: there is no indication Kapono can create his own shot, so he may be almost wasted as a sub. If he can keep from being a defensive liability and manages to shoot approaching the sort of advertised consistency, all signs point towards Jason cementing a slot in the rotation.

Jorge Garbajosa – Garbo has been a contender for ‘toughest man in the Lig’ ever since he set foot on North American soil; this dude is one tough hombre. Foot is still a concern after a gruesome season-ending injury which appears to have not healed yet, but it didn’t stop him from playing for Spain in the Olympic qualifiers this summer. Possesses very little in the form of NBA athletic ability, but maintains efficiency on the court by being a remarkably savvy player. Needs to spend a little more time near the rim on offense, as he sometimes resembles a Spanish Charles Oakley for his tendency to float outside. Excellent passer, solid rebounder and surprisingly effective defender. Great glue guy who has earned the affection of Mitchell, will be a staple in the rotation at the 4 or 3. His love for maintaining stubble rivals George Michael during the Wham! years.

Carlos Delfino – Argentinean import, snatched up from the Piston scrap heap after failing to crack their rotation. Don’t let the delicately-plucked eye brows and novella star looks fool you; at his best, he can be an active slasher that relentlessly attacks the rim. Slightly undersized for a ‘3’, he may struggle defensively against the NBA elite at this position. Sam is already trying to light a fire under him during the pre-season via diatribes about his underwhelming showings in practice to the press. Would be an ideal primary contributor off the bench with his ability to create his own shot and could team with Calderon to make an already effective second unit down-right scary. The jury is still out on whether Carlos can bring it every night in the Lig, and although he could be considered a ‘2’, he is more a scorer than a shooter, who is equally likely to be buried deep on the bench and become a frequent resident of Sam’s dog house. Could really add to the rotation but is literally a 50-50 proposition; Delfino has sworn up and down that he will return to Europe forever if he can not get significant minutes with the Raps – nobody in Detroit is holding their breath.

Rasho Nesterovic – an old school, goalie-type centre with extremely limited mobility, who will settle into a situational player for the Raps. Has decent touch out to 18 feet and is an excellent passer for a big man: absolutely refuses to dunk and has zero back-to-the-basket game. Length and size can pose problems defensively, as he will get some blocks despite his inability to leave the ground. Will see limited minutes with the continued development of Bargnani, and despite a solid summer playing in the Olympic qualifiers, is ultimately being phased out of the Raptors plans.

Kris Humphries – the dirty-work, undersized, front-court sub that needs to bang to get playing time. Closer to 6’7 than 6’9, Humphries effectiveness on the court is directly proportional to his activeness. Becomes clear when watching him on the offensive end that he still considers himself a skill player, often to his detriment. Was a highly recruited high school player who prematurely left to the NBA after the briefest of stints in College – he’s still learning what works and what doesn’t, especially on the offensive end. Guaranteed to spend time in Sam’s dog house at some point during the season, but he could work up to a regular 15-20 minutes in the rotation because of Mitchell’s love for the dirty-work guy. Lack of size really hurts him at both ends of the court, forcing him to outwork opponents to be effective: his performance drastically increases against subs as opposed to playing against NBA-caliber starters. Another of the extreme beige men on the roster, son could clearly pass and seems to be permanently affixed with a vacant look. Maceo Baston is taking a hard look at Humphries’ minutes.

Joey Graham – could be his last season as a pro. A known weight room junkie that seems to have all the physical tools to make it in the NBA, but appears to have little to no clue when he actually gets on the floor. A player who, theoretically, will be given every opportunity to solidify the ‘3’ hole in the Raptors’ line-up, as management’s patience at his development wears thin. Would be an instant starter if he could bring energy at both ends of the floor, rebound, attack the basket and hit an open jumper, yet rarely puts himself in the position to affect a game in any manner whatsoever. Basketball IQ appears to be glaringly deficient, can be viewed as the anti-Garbo. Should at least be a defensive stopper to be used on opposing high-scoring 3’s, sadly, hasn’t worked out that way so far. Would bring a huge boost to the size and athleticism of the small forward spot on this squad and fill a gaping need on the roster – a disappointing season could signal the end of his career.

Juan Dixon – a well-timed Colangelo pick-up last year, is now just another tool in the shed for Mitchell. If Joey Graham were ever to emerge, Delfino would probably get minutes at the ‘2’ which would push Dixon out of the rotation all together; however, the odds of that happening seem slim to none. Although painfully, chronically undersized Dixon adds to the roster with his ability to create his own shot; he’s a scorer who can be a streaky shooter. Was used at times by Sam creatively as a defensive stopper, despite his size, inserted simply to give the opposition’s big backcourt scorer a different look on defense. Could find a spot in the rotation as a Vinnie ‘Microwave’ Johnson-type scorer off the bench; tremendous character guy who may end up sticking elsewhere if minutes don’t turn up in Toronto.

Maceo Baston – part of the Macabi pipeline where he played with Anthony Parker, was picked-up off the Pacer’s roster to address rebounding and interior defensive issues. Michigan product provides length and athleticism at the ‘4’, absolutely needs to bring energy to the floor by blocking shots, rebounding and finishing strong at the rim. Counterpoint to Humphries’ bruising game, as Baston is more of a finesse player, which may catch the ire of Mitchell. Minutes are definitely there for the taking, if he can provide the Raptors with something off the bench.

Darrick Martin – becoming more and more moot as time passes, may be best suited to an assistant coaching role sooner than later. There are some who feel his mentoring of the Raps’ two young point guards has pretty much exhausted its benefits, but his veteran savvy could still come in handy. Will see more DNP’s this season than in possibly any of his previous 13 years in the Lig. Career highlight came when he smoked newly Lakered Gary Payton for an injury-riddled Timberwolf team in the ’03-04 Playoffs. Surprisingly uncreative on court presence, who rarely looks to distribute and always settles for his patented 18-21 foot jumper; must know that cup of coffee is coming to an end.

Luke Jackson – former Oregon Duck star swingman is coming up at the booty end of the numbers game. Listed at 6’8 coming out of college, Jackson is 6’6 at best, and not the sort of athlete who could compensate by losing two inches. May hang on to a roster spot, but with the signing of Kapono, who is a taller, more consistent-shooting, more experienced version of himself, Jackson has lost any chance of cracking the Raps’ rotation.

Coach Sam Mitchell – as reigning Coach of the Year, and holder of a most-valued contract extension, there is a glow emanating from Sam that cannot be attributed to the S-curl juice alone. While conventional wisdom may have dictated that Colangelo go another way with the coaching situation, the formerly much maligned Mitchell headed a very coachable Raptor squad to an impressive turn-around culminating in an Atlantic division pennant. Sure he was out-coached for the most part by Lil’ Lawrence Frank in the Playoffs, but the stigma of being a weak tactical coach has seemed to somewhat subside for Sam as have the jokes about the Raptors’ one set playbook. His ability to develop players is clearly a strength, which may have reinforced Colangelo’s decision to stick with Mitchell for this relatively young squad. Will often address players straight through the press and can afford to with the lack of veterans on the roster: rides the precarious line of player’s coach and disciplinarian. With MoPete gone, Sam’s gonna have to find someone else to occupy primary residence in the dog house, which will probably go to hapless Joey G or a certain, surely South American. It will be interesting to see if Mitchell shows the tactical acumen to get the Raptors into the open court more often and see if he can improve the team’s standing as least-effective out of a time out. However, based on the effort he is regularly able to coax out of this team, there is a lot of goodwill to go around for Sam in Toronto, and only the most disastrous of seasons could expel that. Besides, regardless how bad the Raps are struggling, there’s always the Leafs to take that negative attention away.

Friday, October 05, 2007

Indians fans are ecstatic; Cavs fans…not so much

“And now, starting at smaaaaaaaall forward for YOUR Brook-lyyyyyyn Lack-Luster Comebacks…throw your ROCS high in the sky for NUUUUUMBER TWEENTY-THREE…”

Don’t say I never told you. Do the math yourself. Lebo (haha JC killed it with that story) takes the player option in 2010, the ex-swamp Nets pull the plug on VC’s option year in 2011 and voila. A synergistic orgy of entertainment and sports: plus ROC chains for everyone!

Do you really think Stern will mind? Protect Cleveland's interests? Small market rights are an oxymoron. The only question left is if LB beats Kobe to NYC…