2007-08 NBA Western Conference Preview

So tonight, the NBA officially begins with a trio of Western Conference clashes, Dotrunnings is going to go out on a limb and give you a fearless look into the future. Don’t be scared by what you are about to read, just embrace it as I take no responsibility for any extreme unforeseen incidences that may knock my predictions out of wack. Now get that money…
First, the bottom of the barrel:

Stuck in no man’s land

Clips – It’s just not happening without Elton, but the Livingston situation doesn’t help either. They seemed to have picked a winner in Al Thornton, who should get a lot of burn. A lower case Playoff team with Elton, the other L.A. team is looking hard at the lottery.

Kings – Bibby is out for the first couple of months of the season, and it might actually help the chemistry. Brad Miller apparently has taken the Olympic team disrespect to play the sort of ball that got him on the team to begin with and Kevin Martin is destined to show last season wasn’t a fluke. However, these are the only rays of sunshine, as it’s looking pretty bleak in Sactown. A Kobe lite situation is brewing here, as the Kings have to figure out what they are gonna do about Ron-Ron’s long term future.

Wolves – Apparently Al Jefferson will get a chance to have a break out season. This is an incredibly young team that has become even more unstable with point-in-training Randy Foye out for an extended period with a knee injury. Let the rebuilding begin!

Rebuilding upwards

Grizz – Memphis managed to hold off from making the Bulls the next NBA champions by keeping Gasol, and now appear to be on their way back to being relevant. Although all indications point to Conley Jr. being brought along slowly, expect Spanish import Juan Carlos Navarro to crack the rotation and then some. Mike Miller had a good summer, but best case scenario here is that Rudy Gay and Darko both prove they are legitimate NBA starters. Best thing about this team may be that Raptor’s dream coach Marc Iavaroni is in charge: may catch some teams off guard and steal some games out West with that up-tempo style.

Portland – I felt compelled to put these guys here, even though the rash of unbelievably bad luck with the injury bug has crippled this franchise for this year. So while they are on their way back to the lottery, Portland needs to assess several areas for next year, namely: who is their point guard of the future; is Martell Webster ever going to be an NBA starter and will LaMarcus Aldridge develop into the stud that certain folks swear he will become. Next year should be interesting…

Seattle – The team of a thousand swing players looks like they are gonna try the Durant shooting guard experiment. This could really backfire as KD may be the most heavily scouted rookie in the Lig in years and shooters to open up the floor will be at a premium. They will need some time, but while they are figuring it out, the Sonics need to know if they have an NBA centre on their roster and who is the most suitable point guard to lead them into the future.

Lower Case Playoff Teams

Denver – Some folks like these guys to be a real threat to the big three in the Conference and if they come in on a roll at the end of the season, they could be scary in the Playoffs. But in actuality, these guys are the Knicks of the Western Conference (comparisons to the Knicks = trouble) and for all the talent they have accumulated on the roster, it is belied by the fact that:
1. They play no defense, whatsoever
2. They have nobody who looks to distribute the ball to all that star power
3. George Karl and Isiah have more in common coaching-wise than any Nugget fan would care to admit.
Throw in some suspect character-players on the roster (is J.R. Smith actually related to DeShawn Stevenson?) and you have a recipe for a self-limiting 6^th seed. Should be interesting to see how Kenyon fits back in the mix tho.

Golden State – the anti-Spurs. Their up-tempo style constitutes an incredibly high-risk form of winning basketball: sure, they can beat anybody when they are firing on full cylinders, but can you expect to maintain that pace over a full playoff run, never mind a full season? Regardless, these guys should be a lot of fun to watch, with a lot of ups and downs for their fans. The loss of JRich shouldn’t hurt too much with this roster but to have any sort of shot at winning stability, they need Monta Ellis and Al Harrington to step up their productivity and cause some match-up problems. Look out for Kelenna Azubuike, who tore up the pre-season.

Lackers – The team I love to hate, and they are in some trouble. The years of in-house, in-family, upper management in-fighting have taken its toll, as the Purple and Gold have barely managed a significant roster up-grade in the past x-amount of seasons. And guess who is vexed. They really should blow up this team, but the fanbase won’t stand for it and Coach Fake-Buddhist Jax would exile himself at the notion of a true rebuilding project. So here the Lakers stand, thier best case scenario is on the cusp of a Playoff spot in the more competitive conference. And they don’t even have Smush on the roster to kick around/blame stuff for. Laker fans are hoping Fisher, rookie Javaris Crittenton and Chris Mihm (!?!) make a difference and Andrew Bynum becomes that dude at 21 (!!?): again, the up-side is limited here. However, if the Kobe trade talks start to heat up even more, you can be assured this season is a wrap.

Hornets – Looking hard at that last Playoff spot, and have a much more legitimate upside than the Lackers with a truly influential star point guard in Chris Paul and a brand new 2-3 combo with MoPete joining former injury-casualty Peja Stojakovic. These guys had serious trouble scoring last year and the roster revamping will address that. Sure, their primary low post threat in David West is a little shaky by Lig-standards and Tyson Chandler brings little offense to the centre position, but as a team, these guys rebound great. If they can stave off the injury bug, a .500 year could get them the 8^th seed.

Now we get to the teams that are built to go deep into the Playoffs, as their rosters are strong and well-rounded enough to get them through the regular season. But the Playoffs are a different world, and it was clear from watching the real NBA Finals, i.e. the Spurs-Suns series, that two things ultimately determine success in the post season:
The ability to engage your team in Playoff intensity defense.
Having three options that can create their own points regularly against Playoff intensity defense.
The Playoffs irreducibly become a world of half-court, slug-it-out, high intensity, match-up oreinted basketball and nobody reinforces this more than the defending Champs. Here’s a look at the two tier system of contenders in a conference whose winner should be the next title holder for the ’07-08 season.

2^nd Tier: A year or two away from seriously contending.

Houston – Things are really looking up for the Rockets as they have been one of the more active teams in the off-season in changing the look of the team. It all starts with coaching, as more so than what Rick Aledman brings to the table as the new bench boss, it was evident that the Van Gundy-era needed to be put to an end. So with the addition of Argentina’s best player during the summer’s Olympic qualifying, PF Luis Scola and the sudden potential re-emergence of Bonzi Wells, the Rockets are looking like a potential beast. Houston’s biggest concern, other than remaining healthy (i.e. T-Mac, Yao), is to sort out the over-stocked backcourt situation, as Steve Francis theoretically is a much better idea than Steve Francis practically. Look for Tracy to assume the point-forward gig with Mike James getting starter’s minutes to help spread the court, with Rafer being phased out as the season progresses. And 4^th seed is realistically there for the taking…

Utah – The Jazz had a nice-little run last year, as the cement themselves as the Raptors of the West being that: they have a promising PG situation going with a blossoming, productive PF who loves to face the basket and a centre who bombs from the outside but are in dire need of sorting out production from the middle of the line-up (namely the ‘2’) which is painfully lacking. Ronnie Brewer has stepped up in the pre-season to provide the sort of athletic, slashing presence that is making Jazz fans salivate. However, the most important issue with the roster is the ongoing Kirilenko-saga and how he fits in the offense; he seems to have backed off from the trade demands, but Sloan needs adjust his rigid sets to get more out of AK-47. If this team ever gets a dangerous third half-court threat, they could start knocking on the door of the big three…

1st Tier: One of these teams will win the title this year – it’s virtually a wrap.

San Antonio – Big, bad and boring defending champs. What more can you say about them. Far and away, the best coached team in the Lig, possessing a few dominate talents blended in with embracing role players. That being said, they got the kind of heady play and lucky bounces that great teams manufacture and are ultimately tough to replicate; the Spurs were a forearm shiver away from being 2^nd round causalities. Return the same battle-tested roster, with potential upgrades in SF Ime Udoka and Darius Washington at the backup PG spot. The only thing you can say is that they haven’t repeated. Yet.

Dallas – regular season juggernauts. Manage to f*ck up teams with that short line-up, seemingly at will. But everyone saw what that short line-up can do in an extended series against some bad match-ups. Dallas is hoping that Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell shore up their bench, but what would really help is if Devin Harris has a break-through season and can managed to hit a jumper consistently. It’d be impossible to deny that this team is shook and Dirk is carrying a lot of weight on his back after MVPing a first round exit last year. Still, they should be a machine again during the regular season. Leading to an anxious Playoffs again…

Phoenix – after some Marion grumblings and an Amare knee scare during the pre-season, they've settled down and there’s a lot to like about this squad. Grant Hill has looked great and could be a formidable third option in the half court if Barbosa comes up firing blanks like in last year’s Spurs series. Because we know that for all Marion does for this team, he is not that guy to create his own points in the half-court. Amare has shown indications of having a monster season this year, but Boris Diaw really needs to step up his contributions to make the front court go, especially without Kurt Thomas there to provide the intangibles. D’Antoni absolutely has to manage this team to be healthy and not burnt out coming into the Playoffs, even if it means a few less regular season wins.

So who’s gonna make it through? There’s a lot of best case scenarios that could involve Houston, Utah and to a lesser extent Golden State and Denver making some serious noise but probability dictates it will always comes down to that quandary at the top: Phoenix has a team that can play the Spurs fairly even, but do not seem to match up well against Dallas, while the Mavs are traditionally hopeless when facing the prospect of the Spurs in an extended series. This hierarchy will probably be derailed come Playoff time, as Dallas will be the resident Conference shook ones, from their coach on down, facing serious child-star type anxiety in brighter spotlight.
What it will come down to is who will be able to elevate their game beyond the lowest common denominator style that rules in the grueling series grind that is the Western Conference Playoffs. And to this point, nobody has a higher base level of play than San Antonio, as their chemistry and ability to get the job done is nothing short of seminal. Someone will have to step up to take away their title.
This year, I believe it will be the Suns that take that next step. They have all the motivation in the world after last year’s David Stern-sponsored 2^nd round debacle of a series. Tim Duncan will always be an almost impossible match-up for Phoenix, so really, losing Kurt Thomas is more moot than people will have you believe with his defensive performance against TD being lionized for no particular reason other than being gutty: they will have to get over this. What really hurt the Suns the most in that Spurs series was that their half-court game became exclusively a Nash-Amare affair, and they were unable to manufacture points in any other way. Expecting Barbosa not to flame out this year and Diaw to step up would be hopeful yet not guaranteed notions; both still more reasonable prospects than expecting Marion to suddenly develop a one-on-one game that would effective against top flight defenses. As easy as it is to be skeptical about this move, picking up Grant Hill may the one that puts them over the top, providing a reliable scoring option as long as he is physically able for the Playoffs. It will be vital that the Suns bring that proverbial ‘chip-on-the-shoulder’ edge to their game, as their style over substance reputation may be exaggerated by the press, it is not entirely unfounded.
This may seem to be as good a year as any for the Spurs to finally repeat, as the only team in the conference psychologically prepared to compete with them is the Suns, keeping in mind the frail mental state that plagues the Mavs and relative inexperience of the rest of the pack. And head to head, Phoenix may have finally gotten together a roster that can finish the job. It may be a cop out to chose a personal favourite to make it happen, but I’m putting it out there that this is the year the good guys get it right. Now I don’t think anyone can feel comfortable predicting an entertaining NBA Finals, but there’s always the solace of the high drama looming in the Western Conference bracket to tide you over.