Eastern Conference playoff predictions...from a Dot point of view.
So the season has finally started. I know, I know, technically bets are placed before the games start, but here is how I see the East and the resulting best case/worst case scenarios, giving me my outs. And did Miami and Phoenix ever stink it up last night...well, Phoenix for 3 quarters...maybe these first games have subliminally affected me, but only in the most deeply subconscious way...despite my conscious acknowledgement of it. Besides, I'm saying Toronto will make the playoffs, still...I clearly have greater biases influencing my judgement.
1. Detroit: Best Case - Yes, they will miss Big Ben's defensive stalwartedness and charges taken. But really, now is the time to coherce a big year out of Sheed and to let Dyce step up. And change of scenery is never bad a thing...at least Nazzy knows what its like to play for a good team. The backcourt is superior, as usual, and Flip the player is a nice addition. Veteran team, precision offense, no malcontents (Carlos buddy...you makin' me a liar?)...should rack up big numbers in the regular season.
Worst Case - Without Ben, they give up trying to stop people at all and just out gun em. Precision offense turns into perimeter offense. Somebody starts wanting it with Coach Flip. That said, I don't see them slipping any worse than fourth in the conference...realistically third. If they flop...they'll do it in the playoffs.
2. Chicago: Best Case - Could be a very deep team. Skiles could even work rookies into the line-up (T-Double and some guy named Thabo?). Big Ben and PJ Brown are a huge improvement over whatever they had up front previously and Nocioni as 6th man brings the spark they need off bench. The scoring by committee thing, a theory running counter to 'Lig' conventional wisdom, makes them an unpredictable and dangerous team.
Worst Case - Ben asks for a bigger role on the offensive end, starting it with Skiles.
The lack of a real, full-sized (love you BG...but sorry) go-to player on offense starts to create doubts around the team. Remember this is the team that was doing everything possible behind the scenes to acquire Paul Pierce. Impressed with that name as a Bull...so were they. Sometimes you just gotta love the one your with...if two of the big three aren't scoring on any given night, this team will lose.
3. New Jersey: Best Case - JKidd makes that prooclaimation of averaging a 3-2 not the dumbest thing you ever heard. Vince, R 'Never Will Be Vince' J, Antoine Wright and Hasan Adams run and jump over everything and rebound in the defensive end. The boy Nenad continues to knock down those 15fters Kidd hands him and maybe adds a few feet to his range. First round pick Marcus Williams is able to stop somebody. Manage to buck David Stern and schedule Toronto for 30 games this season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, securing MVP for Vince. Fantasy aside, they are in the Atlantic Division...with a contract year Vince (a slight up-grade in motivation). The regular season looks good.
Worst Case - They will not be able to stop anybody from the point guard position. Extremely thin depth exposed. In particular, wafer thin up front: Jason Collins, Mikki Moore and Buffalo's finest ball-playing geriatric Uncle Cliffy (the weed is for his cataracts dammit!!!) ? Can somebody say glass ceiling? This team will not make it far in the playoffs...especially if Kidd starts getting hung for a Curtis by career back-ups. And remember, these dudes are hitching their wagon to Vince. Isn't that a franchise Worst Case scenario?
4. Cleveland: Best Case - LeBron. Son who would be King starts his reign (on you hoes) this year. Larry Hughes prooves a capable second in command, and outside shooting/scoring suddenly appears from the point guard position (i.e. Shannon Brown becomes a player in the Lig). Donyell stops worrying about his cursed Steelers and becomes steady contributer. Gooden stops getting exposed against legit PF's. Big Z is consistently involved on offense.
Worst Case - Teams figure out no Cav aside from their top two can create a shot. Side Show Bob is forced to play big minutes. The LeBron from the World Championships shows up...jump shot lost amid hype. Becomes best player in history to shoot that many airballs.
5. Miami: Best Case - David Stern mandate refs officiate Heat in the regular season as they do in the playoffs. D. Wade sets free throw attempts record. Kobe does something to vex Shaq, dragging one last big season out of him. Team trip to fountain of youth. Posey becomes ligit starter. Pick up Jalen Rose.
Worst Case - How could you put the defending champions at 5th...5th?!But the reality is that this team could not give not a Lil' Jon 'WHAAT' about the regular season. These dudes are just too old...and now, placated. And speaking of which, point blank...how could Shaq care anymore? Really. These guys might actually make another playoff run, with the refs being what they are. But Stern's marketing department created a team that became possibly the worst Champions in the history of the Lig. And its a team that is not built for the regular season. Oh yeah, pick up Jalen Rose.
6. Washington: Best Case - Gilbert finds a good nickname, makes Lig pay for WC snub. Caron Butler steps up and puts up regular season numbers that resemble those he posted at the end of last season. Jarvis Hayes becomes a shooter that can light it up off the bench. DeShawn Stevenson shows he can defend and knock down an open jumper. Consistent inside play evolves from Haywood/Thomas pairing.
Worst Case - These guys defend like they did last year: ranked amongst the lottery teams. Big individual offensive numbers prove cosmetic. Jamison continues to show WC form. Inside play lack-luster, and they becomes softer than Harry Potter inside. Team offense derived exclusively from perimeter, while the production from the shooting guard position is still non-existent.
7. Toronto: Best Case - If anybody from the States reads this...not a delusional homer prediction. You'll see. In the, uh, best case scenario. Team successfully makes the switch to becoming Phoenix East - up-tempo system good for extra 5-7 road wins alone. Roster depth holds up. Bosh's foot woes aren't Duncan-like. Improved defense and rebounding, open-court play balances out team's natural perimeter tendenices. Bargnani develops some. RUUUNNNN!!!
Worst case - Bosh's plantar fasciitis seriious. Unable to stop anybody on the perimeter (Ford and Calderon...I'm not NOT looking at y'all...). Get consistently bullied inside. Team reverts to the vaunted Mitchell 'one-set' offense (can't even rely on Mike James to dribble down shot clock...gaaasp). Prolonged losing streak causes internal turmoil: coach hung out to dry (a short-term worst case). Bargnani = Darko (felt dirty typing that). All and all, will still be better than last year.
8. Orlando: Best Case - A hot pick for many. Dwight Howard turns into Lig Hulk. Point guard play consistently solid, Jameer has a big year. Somebody, anybody, other than Turkgoglu is able to hit consistently from the outside. Grant Hill is able to provide...anything. Darko emerges...
Worst Case - No shooters on offense, teams collapse on Dwight all day. Arroyo sulks at having to come off bench and wears PR jersey to practices, affecting team play as a whole. Darko and Grant completely ineffective on court, quit ball to help manage Tamia and get her back on a major label (I smell a buddy show pilot!). Revert to days of regularly letting teams light them up like Chinese New Years (not that long ago).
"That don't mek it"... teams living the worst case scenario.
New York: Will have a marked improvement without 'Fundamentals' Brown. Potential clearly there, even with accepting that you are relying on Isiah to bring it out. Although they got rid of Jalen to clear up the front court, I see serious issues with the four guard backcourt rotation where they need to make a similar statement. Ultimately, they will have to get rid of one...most likely Francis or Crawford. Already projecting a 15 odd game turnaround...playoffs a bit much for a franchise this dysfunctional. Screw you Larry!!
Indiana: I'll say it, a painfully over-rated team. Enough with the semantics...tell 'em how you really feel. You want to put all your eggs in the up-tempo basket and then give the reigns to Jamaal Tinsley? Heeell to the naw. Has this dude ever made it through half a season? And no Anthony Johnson to bail y'all out this year (so you got DA??!). And former Hawk Al Harrington returns...is that really that gonna do it? Does anybody really think Gunshot Jackson can consistently put up numbers throughout a long regular season? I couldn't care how well he played in one playoff series. And people are expecting a whole lot out of Danny Granger...isn't that expecting a whole lot. Management cut James White sighting team character issues. Cuz now all those problems are gonna go away. Good luck with that, JO...
Milwaukee: Gave up your starting point guard so shoot first Mo Williams can move from his ideal spot as off the bench gunner to get big minutes. Bogut's hurt and Charlie V is playing like it in the preseason. Redd aside, without a natural playmaker (hell even with one), this team will struggle to score. And if the aforementioned front-court twosome doesn't rebound...this team will have to go looking for help elsewhere or the season's a wrap.
Boston: Still waiting for that young front-court to come around, huh? Might have to wait a little longer. They do realize Ryan Gomes is supposed to be a role player, right? All my objections to this team revolve around the notion that their bigs are legit NBA starters. Give them credit in the backcourt tho, I think Telfair and Rondo will be very solid for years to come. Just don't see it happening this year, as a team. May see Paul Pierce moved by the trade deadline (relax Chicago)...especially if Gerald Green starts coming around. Ainge is like that, kid...
For anybody who isn't mentioned and does make a run at the playoffs, I'll repent those sins at a later time. For now, I'm sticking to this story...
1. Detroit: Best Case - Yes, they will miss Big Ben's defensive stalwartedness and charges taken. But really, now is the time to coherce a big year out of Sheed and to let Dyce step up. And change of scenery is never bad a thing...at least Nazzy knows what its like to play for a good team. The backcourt is superior, as usual, and Flip the player is a nice addition. Veteran team, precision offense, no malcontents (Carlos buddy...you makin' me a liar?)...should rack up big numbers in the regular season.
Worst Case - Without Ben, they give up trying to stop people at all and just out gun em. Precision offense turns into perimeter offense. Somebody starts wanting it with Coach Flip. That said, I don't see them slipping any worse than fourth in the conference...realistically third. If they flop...they'll do it in the playoffs.
2. Chicago: Best Case - Could be a very deep team. Skiles could even work rookies into the line-up (T-Double and some guy named Thabo?). Big Ben and PJ Brown are a huge improvement over whatever they had up front previously and Nocioni as 6th man brings the spark they need off bench. The scoring by committee thing, a theory running counter to 'Lig' conventional wisdom, makes them an unpredictable and dangerous team.
Worst Case - Ben asks for a bigger role on the offensive end, starting it with Skiles.
The lack of a real, full-sized (love you BG...but sorry) go-to player on offense starts to create doubts around the team. Remember this is the team that was doing everything possible behind the scenes to acquire Paul Pierce. Impressed with that name as a Bull...so were they. Sometimes you just gotta love the one your with...if two of the big three aren't scoring on any given night, this team will lose.
3. New Jersey: Best Case - JKidd makes that prooclaimation of averaging a 3-2 not the dumbest thing you ever heard. Vince, R 'Never Will Be Vince' J, Antoine Wright and Hasan Adams run and jump over everything and rebound in the defensive end. The boy Nenad continues to knock down those 15fters Kidd hands him and maybe adds a few feet to his range. First round pick Marcus Williams is able to stop somebody. Manage to buck David Stern and schedule Toronto for 30 games this season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, securing MVP for Vince. Fantasy aside, they are in the Atlantic Division...with a contract year Vince (a slight up-grade in motivation). The regular season looks good.
Worst Case - They will not be able to stop anybody from the point guard position. Extremely thin depth exposed. In particular, wafer thin up front: Jason Collins, Mikki Moore and Buffalo's finest ball-playing geriatric Uncle Cliffy (the weed is for his cataracts dammit!!!) ? Can somebody say glass ceiling? This team will not make it far in the playoffs...especially if Kidd starts getting hung for a Curtis by career back-ups. And remember, these dudes are hitching their wagon to Vince. Isn't that a franchise Worst Case scenario?
4. Cleveland: Best Case - LeBron. Son who would be King starts his reign (on you hoes) this year. Larry Hughes prooves a capable second in command, and outside shooting/scoring suddenly appears from the point guard position (i.e. Shannon Brown becomes a player in the Lig). Donyell stops worrying about his cursed Steelers and becomes steady contributer. Gooden stops getting exposed against legit PF's. Big Z is consistently involved on offense.
Worst Case - Teams figure out no Cav aside from their top two can create a shot. Side Show Bob is forced to play big minutes. The LeBron from the World Championships shows up...jump shot lost amid hype. Becomes best player in history to shoot that many airballs.
5. Miami: Best Case - David Stern mandate refs officiate Heat in the regular season as they do in the playoffs. D. Wade sets free throw attempts record. Kobe does something to vex Shaq, dragging one last big season out of him. Team trip to fountain of youth. Posey becomes ligit starter. Pick up Jalen Rose.
Worst Case - How could you put the defending champions at 5th...5th?!But the reality is that this team could not give not a Lil' Jon 'WHAAT' about the regular season. These dudes are just too old...and now, placated. And speaking of which, point blank...how could Shaq care anymore? Really. These guys might actually make another playoff run, with the refs being what they are. But Stern's marketing department created a team that became possibly the worst Champions in the history of the Lig. And its a team that is not built for the regular season. Oh yeah, pick up Jalen Rose.
6. Washington: Best Case - Gilbert finds a good nickname, makes Lig pay for WC snub. Caron Butler steps up and puts up regular season numbers that resemble those he posted at the end of last season. Jarvis Hayes becomes a shooter that can light it up off the bench. DeShawn Stevenson shows he can defend and knock down an open jumper. Consistent inside play evolves from Haywood/Thomas pairing.
Worst Case - These guys defend like they did last year: ranked amongst the lottery teams. Big individual offensive numbers prove cosmetic. Jamison continues to show WC form. Inside play lack-luster, and they becomes softer than Harry Potter inside. Team offense derived exclusively from perimeter, while the production from the shooting guard position is still non-existent.
7. Toronto: Best Case - If anybody from the States reads this...not a delusional homer prediction. You'll see. In the, uh, best case scenario. Team successfully makes the switch to becoming Phoenix East - up-tempo system good for extra 5-7 road wins alone. Roster depth holds up. Bosh's foot woes aren't Duncan-like. Improved defense and rebounding, open-court play balances out team's natural perimeter tendenices. Bargnani develops some. RUUUNNNN!!!
Worst case - Bosh's plantar fasciitis seriious. Unable to stop anybody on the perimeter (Ford and Calderon...I'm not NOT looking at y'all...). Get consistently bullied inside. Team reverts to the vaunted Mitchell 'one-set' offense (can't even rely on Mike James to dribble down shot clock...gaaasp). Prolonged losing streak causes internal turmoil: coach hung out to dry (a short-term worst case). Bargnani = Darko (felt dirty typing that). All and all, will still be better than last year.
8. Orlando: Best Case - A hot pick for many. Dwight Howard turns into Lig Hulk. Point guard play consistently solid, Jameer has a big year. Somebody, anybody, other than Turkgoglu is able to hit consistently from the outside. Grant Hill is able to provide...anything. Darko emerges...
Worst Case - No shooters on offense, teams collapse on Dwight all day. Arroyo sulks at having to come off bench and wears PR jersey to practices, affecting team play as a whole. Darko and Grant completely ineffective on court, quit ball to help manage Tamia and get her back on a major label (I smell a buddy show pilot!). Revert to days of regularly letting teams light them up like Chinese New Years (not that long ago).
"That don't mek it"... teams living the worst case scenario.
New York: Will have a marked improvement without 'Fundamentals' Brown. Potential clearly there, even with accepting that you are relying on Isiah to bring it out. Although they got rid of Jalen to clear up the front court, I see serious issues with the four guard backcourt rotation where they need to make a similar statement. Ultimately, they will have to get rid of one...most likely Francis or Crawford. Already projecting a 15 odd game turnaround...playoffs a bit much for a franchise this dysfunctional. Screw you Larry!!
Indiana: I'll say it, a painfully over-rated team. Enough with the semantics...tell 'em how you really feel. You want to put all your eggs in the up-tempo basket and then give the reigns to Jamaal Tinsley? Heeell to the naw. Has this dude ever made it through half a season? And no Anthony Johnson to bail y'all out this year (so you got DA??!). And former Hawk Al Harrington returns...is that really that gonna do it? Does anybody really think Gunshot Jackson can consistently put up numbers throughout a long regular season? I couldn't care how well he played in one playoff series. And people are expecting a whole lot out of Danny Granger...isn't that expecting a whole lot. Management cut James White sighting team character issues. Cuz now all those problems are gonna go away. Good luck with that, JO...
Milwaukee: Gave up your starting point guard so shoot first Mo Williams can move from his ideal spot as off the bench gunner to get big minutes. Bogut's hurt and Charlie V is playing like it in the preseason. Redd aside, without a natural playmaker (hell even with one), this team will struggle to score. And if the aforementioned front-court twosome doesn't rebound...this team will have to go looking for help elsewhere or the season's a wrap.
Boston: Still waiting for that young front-court to come around, huh? Might have to wait a little longer. They do realize Ryan Gomes is supposed to be a role player, right? All my objections to this team revolve around the notion that their bigs are legit NBA starters. Give them credit in the backcourt tho, I think Telfair and Rondo will be very solid for years to come. Just don't see it happening this year, as a team. May see Paul Pierce moved by the trade deadline (relax Chicago)...especially if Gerald Green starts coming around. Ainge is like that, kid...
For anybody who isn't mentioned and does make a run at the playoffs, I'll repent those sins at a later time. For now, I'm sticking to this story...
posted by Roger Sign at 11:04 AM
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