Taking Stock and Moving On: Wrapping Up the AI Saga

Much beleaguered Philly GM Billy King finally pulled the trigger and by now everyone knows what Denver gave up to make their team that much more hood rich (I'd say gully but y'all saw the brawl...check out Steve Nash's take at the bottom of here). Time to break down the trade that has left everyone in anticipation of how things work out…

"I got him hemmed up, son...now ruuuuuuuuuuuun!!!

First, Philly:

What They Wanted: In this order: expiring contracts, draft picks and, lastly,
young talent.

What They Got: Joe Smith and 1^st round draft picks fit the expectation bill (yes, noticeable lack of young talent…). Granted, both these picks are assured to be nowhere near the lottery (only Phoenix can make those deals…that’s right, who looks like they’ve snuck into the lottery of a draft billed as best in ages…I mean, you don’ think they gave Joe Johnson away for free, do you?), one is a protected Dallas joint and the other is Denver’s natural spot. Fine…maybe they can even use those picks for draft jockeying depending on where their own lottery pick pans out.
Now about Andre Miller. Here’s the rub. His front-loaded (incentives, bonus ish, etc) contract goes till ’08-09’ which has Philly tapped in for 19 million and change for both seasons. While Philly management is patiently waiting for Webber’s jigantor contract to fly off the books at the end of next season, they’ve made it clear they want as much cap room for maneuvering as possible. They’re in full rebuild mode.
See, the Philly overseers did not want Andre: including Miller was the only way the salaries would add up to avoid the complications of involving another team in the deal. That shining horse (uh…Charlotte) had rode off into the sunset.
And the realest reason of all (as if money isn’t real enough…) they wouldn’t want Miller in a Philly uniform…he may meddle with their operation “Tank To Get Oden”. With Miller, Philly has an extremely mediocre starting five…with some bench – the sorta team someone like Scott Skiles would drill-sergeant his way to some wins in a terrible Eastern Conference. Remember, this is the first time Philly has had anything resembling a starting point in years, never mind an above average one. I can’t see any youngish player that previously slaved under Iverson’s shadow not getting at least some shine now that they have a legitimate playmaker helming their offense. The other AI, Dalembert, Korver, Steven Hunter, Willie Green, Rodney Carney…somebody in this group is bound to step up and show signs of being a building block for the future. You’d think this would be good for the 76ers…but the thing is they want to avoid this development resulting in wins at all costs, in the most immediate sense. If push comes to shove, you may see Louis Williams getting a lot of time at the point as the season closes out…there's agendas that must be reached.

"Sure we got plenty of those in Philly, Greg...and did I mention the cheesesteaks?"

Why They Needed To Do This: When will GM’s and Team Presidents learn? Putting yourself at your colleagues’ mercy by removing your trade bait from the line-up and announcing your intention to trade them is a sure-fire way to devalue their worth. Philly had to do this; sure, having AI sitting around would help with the whole season-tanking thing. But as far as running a functional franchise, it’s damn near impossible to let a situation like this fester. For the history revisionists, it’s too bad for King and Snider that it appears they made the move on Denver’s time table, not to mention the residual stink from Larry Brown's lingering involvement in the form of 'personal trade advisor' to the 76ers.

"I thought Philly did a great job with that deal...and they don't even have to pay Zo a dime!"

What Will Happen: For all the critics of this trade, Philly was never looking to improve in any sort of immediate sense, as hard as it may be for some fans to admit: unless a lottery pick was bagged, the true value of AI would never be realized in a trade like this. Ever. So if we’re looking at probable scenarios, Andre Miller will lead the 76ers to the dark side of mediocrity: a team that improves by narrowing its margin of missing the playoffs but throws away lottery balls in the process. With the stakes being as high as they are (and wouldn’t it be funny if Oden actually decides to stay in college) this is a totally unacceptable outcome. But this scenario will only play out if Miller actually stays on the team. As John Hollinger suggests (an opinion brought to you via third party True Hoop), there is little doubt that Miller will be dealt to a contending team with some expiring contracts before the deadline, with Miami seeming to be the logical fit as far as desire and requisite goods (Posey) to make it happen. With Miller gone, Philly will happily tumble in the standings, and pray to the Basketball Gods and the good folks at the Stern Marketing Machine that Philly would be a great city for the next NBA superstar to grow and prosper. Did I really say somewhere that money wasn’t the bottom line…?

Now, Denver:

"Ayo...where La La at?"

What They Wanted: Initially, a legitimate secondary scoring option; ideally a perimeter threat. Some star power to catapult them into the upper echelon of Western Conference contenders. But recent circumstances dictate they find somebody who can pick up the big-time scoring void created by their stoopid coach getting pimp-slapped by Karma for trying to publicly embarrass Isiah…uh, more than he’s normally used to.

What They Got: Salary Cap Hell. Seriously, that…and a pretty good individual talent. Understatement? Perhaps. It may seem underestimating of Mr. Iverson, but that is the point really. For all his perceived baggage, it’s the assessment of AI’s individual talent that is an undeniable truth never to be questioned (see this interesting ode to AI by Harry which includes the recounting of painful memories). Clearly, what remains uncertain is whether this will work in a team framework. Can Melo and AI, currently the top two scorers in the Lig, play on same team and make that team win?

Why They Needed To Do This: For sometime Denver has been eying putting Melo together with another big name talent, in an attempt to have the franchise break through to compete with the big dogs of the conference. JR Smith has been somewhat of a teaser, as conventional wisdom seems to equate Lig success to having two big time scoring options on your squad. It’s been suggested that AI has been be shopped around as early as last year, which no doubt gave Denver management the time to marinate on the reality of making such a blockbuster move. Thus, it seemed natural for the Nuggets to jump to the head of the pack in the bartering that Billy King et al. had publicly initiated by placing their former star on the open market. With Minnesota strong in intent, but struggling to put together an appealing package, a very tangible move for the franchise became a down-right necessity after a certain coach played with fire and got his team burned: clearly the suspension of Melo and JR was the impetus that pushed the deal through.

What Will Happen: Alright, let’s look at this roster for half a second. Without Melo and JR you could say the Nuggets almost look like Philly, albeit a Philly team lacking even a marginal pass-first, set-up point like Kevin Ollie. That’s right; the only two primary ball handlers on the roster are principally known for being able to get their own shot…and having an uncanny knack for leaving their teammates stranded on the court. I mean, damn. When Melo and JR get back, you’re talking about a backcourt rotation of AI, JR and Boykins: you throw Melo in there and you’ve got a foursome that rivals the passing deficiencies of the Knicks backcourt! The KNICKS! This doesn’t look good…adding a (preferably big) pass first point would be the obligatory first post AI acquisition.

He can even wear his old jersey...

Roster issues aside, let me digress, quickly: pre-suspension, Allen puts Denver on his back and scores like mad, winning the hearts of the Denver faithful (ain’t a damn thing changed…) They’ll manage to stay afloat in the division, but will take some bad beats, as the Nuggets play virtually all of the Western Conference contenders while Melo is gone.
Post-suspension, Iverson and Melo will settle into a sort of shaky détente-type existence: it would be completely unrealistic to expect both these players not to be highly aware of their relative scoring and nightly shot attempts, both of which are sure to drop noticeably (hey, they’re trying to make it work…). Sure AI may not be the most natural playmaker (in the team concept sense of the term) and he will have his ups and downs as a primary ball handler…his domination of the ball will certainly take away from Melo at times, and there’s nothing the bells and whistles of Karl’s up tempo offense will be able to do about it. Oh and the consistency to JR Smith’s scoring will fall the ‘eff’ off.
But given the sting of his departure from Philly, Iverson will be acutely cognizant of his critics and he will be motivated prove the nay-sayers/haters wrong. I believe that he will eventually manage assimilate his game just enough (i.e. not completely vex Melo) so that Denver will actually be able to make a season-ending run, only to be squeezed out by an elite contender such as Dallas, San Antonio or Phoenix in the playoffs.
However, the chinks in the armor will be exposed in the following season, one that will include the additional pressure of high expectations from the previous end of season rallying and the return of perennial problem child Kenyon Martin. As the team starts slipping from out of his control, Karl will eventually be forced to step in and choose sides in the power struggle over which player is to be designated as the team’s primary option. With management backing Mello, George and AI’s relationship will completely fall apart, and even the addition of a pass first point to the roster will not be able to salvage what’s left of this rapidly deteriorating situation. Ultimately, Denver is never able to fully crack the group of elite squads in the West.

"Yes. I am an idiot. But Larry sure gave me a hell of a deal..."

What could save the team would be the insertion of a coach who will be able to install a system that allows for the sort of ball sharing that will keep the roster placated. Of course, this coach will have to get his players to buy into said system as well. Player management will be the key in the pairing of Melo and AI, and I can’t believe George Karl is the man who will be up to this task. Granted Phil Jacksons don’t grow on trees, but with Karl’s old school leanings, suspect dealings with past stars and his tendency to turn on players…let’s just say at the first sign of friction, I wouldn’t expect an AI to play the good Samaritan for just anybody. Might as well start that pool up on when the first public ‘practice-related’ feud will occur…

And I sing...Who got my back?...I do not know...

All in all, like the KG situation in Minnesota, I don’t think there is a true fan of basketball that isn’t excited at the prospect of Iverson playing with a fellow superstar (yeah I said it…). The Denver bandwagon is bound to swell to overwhelming proportions, especially if this pairing turns out to be anything but a disaster on its onset. Stern may not be able to bring himself to market this situation to its full potential (ad campaigns based on ‘swagger’ may be a tough look…), but in the end, this will be a stunningly fascinating experiment in character…the right coach would certainly make for a better handicap. But hey, Larry did manage to win AI’s respect…uh, sort of. We’ll see how his good buddy and courtside defender does…for Denver’s sake, hopefully this will be a scenario that’s more Payton than Jesus.